By: Vincent Cuevas
Geovisualization Project Assignment, SA8905, Fall 2020
Project link can be found here.
Introduction
The United States presidential elections occur every four years and much attention is placed on the polarization of US politics based on voting for either of the major political parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. This project aims to use visualization to show the results across many different elections over time to view how the American public is voting for these two parties.
Methodology and Data
Tableau was used for the data visualization due to its ability to integrate multiple data sheets and recognize spatial data to instantly create maps. It is also able to quickly generate different types of visualizations in cartographic maps, bar charts, line graphs, etc.
Data was collected from the University of California – Santa Barbara website the Presidency Project. The repository contains data from elections all the way back up to 1789. This visualization will go back to 1976 and view results up until 2016. Other data sources were considered for this visualization, namely MIT’s Election Lab dataset from 1976-2016. However, this dataset contained results for up to 66 different parties that votes were casted for from 1976 to 2016. Incorporating this level of detail would have shown inconsistent data fields across the different election years. Other political parties are omitted from this project due to the inconsistency of party entrants by year and the fact that Democrats and Republicans take up the vast majority of the national vote. The Presidency Project data was used as it provided simpler views of Democrat-Republican results.
Data Retrieval
The downside to using UCSB’s Presidency Project data is that it is not available as a clean data file!
The data was collected from each individual data page into an Excel sheet. One small piece of data that was collected elsewhere was the national voter turnout data, which was taken from the United States Election Project website.
Voting Margin Choropleth Map
Once the data was formatted, only two sheets needed to be imported into Tableau. The first was the state level results, and the second being the national level results. The relationship between the two is held to together by a join on the state fields.
Tableau has a nice feature in that it instantly converts recognizable data fields into spatial data. In this case, the state field generates latitude and longitude points for each state. Drag the auto-generated Latitude and Longitude fields into Columns and Rows, and then drag state under Marks to get this.
For one of the main sheets, one of the maps will show a choropleth themed map that will show voting margin differences between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Polygon shapes are needed, which can be done by going to the drop-down menu in Marks and selecting Map. Next, the sheet will need to identify the difference between states that were Democrat vs. Republican. A variable ‘PartyWin’ was created for this and dragged under marks, and colours were changed to represent each party.
The final step requires creating ranges based on the data. Ranges cannot be created manually and require either some programming logic and/or the use of bins. Bins were created by right-clicking a variable ‘VictoryMargin (%)’. The size of each bin is essentially a pre-determined interval (20 was chosen). VictoryMargin(%) was dragged under Marks in order to get a red/blue separation from the colours from Party Win. The Colors were edited under VictoryMargin to get appropriate light/darker hues for each colour. The specific bins were also appropriately labelled based on 20 point intervals.
The screenshot shows that you can hover over the states and retrieve information on Party Win, the percentage of Democrat and Republican votes that year, as well as the Victory Margin. The top-left corner also has Year in the Pages area, which also for a time-series view for each page that contains Year.
Vote Size Dot Symbol Map
While margin of victory in each state illustrates the degree on if the state voted Democrat or Republican, we know that the total number of Democrat and Republican not equal when comparing voting populations across different states. Florida, for example has 9,420,039 total votes casted and had a 1.2% victory margin for the Republicans in 2016. Contrast that with District of Columbia in the same year, which had 311,268 total votes, but with a 86.8% victory margin for Democrats. For the next map, dot symbols are used to determine the vote size (based on the variable Total State Votes) for each state.
The same longitude and latitude generated map will be used from the choropleth map, only this time the dots and the surrounding Open Street basemap are kept intact. A similar approach is taken from the choropleth map using Party Win to differentiate between Republican and Democrat states. The Total State Votes variable is dragged into the size area under Marks to create different dots sizes based on the numbers here. Bins were created once again – this time with an interval break of 2.5 million votes per state. Ideally, there would be customized breaks as many states fall into the lower end of total votes such as District of Columbia. Once the labelled bins are edited, additional information for State, Total Democrat Votes and Total Democrat Votes were entered to view in the Tooltip.
Electoral College Seats Bar
American politics has the phrase of “270 To Win“, based on needing 270 electoral seats as of 2020 to win enough seats for the presidency. As recently as 2016, the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over the Republican candidate Donald Trump. However, Trump won the majority of electoral seats and presidency based on winning votes in states with a greater total number of seats.
A bar showing the number of electoral seats won can highlight the difference between popular vote, and that greater margin of victory in a state matters less than having a greater number of state seats won. To create this bar the same setup is used having Party Win and State underneath the marks. This time, a SUM value of the number of seats is dragged to the Columns. The drop down list is then changed into a bar.
Dashboard and Nationwide Data Points
Since this data will go into a dashboard, there is a need to think how these visualizations compliment each other. The maps themselves provide data while looking at a view of individual states. The dynamic bar shows the results of each state, though is better at informing the viewer the number of seats of won by each party, and the degree to how many more seats were won. The dynamic bar needs some context though, specifically the number of total seats won nationwide. This logically took the visualization for placing the maps at the middle/bottom, while moving the electoral college bar to the top, while also providing some key indicators for the overall election results.
The key data points included were the party names, party candidates, percentage of popular vote, total number of party votes, total number of electoral seats, as well as an indicator of if either the Democratic or Republican Party won. Secondary stats for the Other Party Vote (%), Total Number of Votes Casted, as well as Voter Turnout(%). Individual worksheets were created of each singular stat and were imported into the dashboard. Space was also used to include Alaska and Hawaii. While the main maps are dynamic in Tableau and allow for panning, having the initial view of these states limits the need to for the user to find those states. All of the imported data had ‘Year’ dragged into the pages area of the worksheet, allowing for a time-series view of all of the data points.
You can see what the time series from 1976 to 2016 looks like in a gif animation via this Google Drive link.
Insights
When looking at the results starting from 1976, an interesting point is that many Southern states were Democratic (with a big part due to the Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter being governor of Georgia) that are now Republican in 2016. 1980 to 1984 was the Ronald Reagan era, where the Californian governor was immensely popular throughout the country. Bill Clinton’s reign from in 1992 and 1996 followed in Carter’s footsteps with the Arkansas governor able to win seats in typically Republican states. Starting with the George W. Bush presidency win in 2000, current voting trends manage to stay very similar with Republican states being in the Midwest and Southern regions, while Democrats take up the votes in the Northeast and Pacific Coast. Many states around the Great Lakes such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have traditionally been known as “swing states” in many elections with Donald Trump winning many of those states in 2016. When it comes to number of votes by state, two states with larger populations (California, New York) have typically been Democratic in recent years leading to a large amount of total votes for Democrats. However, the importance of total votes is minimized compared to the number of electoral seats gained.
Future Considerations and Limitations
With the Democrats taking back many of those swing states in the most recent election, inputting the 2020 election data would highlight where Democrats were successful in 2020 vs. in 2016. Another consideration would be to add the results since 1854, when the Republican Party was first formed as the major opposition to the Democratic Party.
Two data limitations within Tableau are the use of percentages, and the lack of projections. Tableau can show data in percentages, but only as a default if it is part of a Row % or Column % total. The data file was structured in a way where this was not possible, meaning that whole numbers were used with (%) labelled wherever necessary. Tableau also is not able to project in a geographic coordinate system without necessary conversions. For the purposes of this map, the default Web Mercator layout was used. One previous iteration of this map was also done as a cartogram hex map. However, a hex map may be better in a static map as the sizing and zooming is much more forgiving when using the default basemap.